
Richard Anthony Johnson
Managing Director, Head of International Capital Markets
SIGNA Financial Services AG
6 July 2020
Sorrel Pompert Robertson
At a ULI Europe webinar on 1 July, John Barakat, Head of Real Estate Finance for M&G Investments, spoke to a number of leading figures in the industry about how public and private capital markets are responding to the Covid-19 crisis.
The full webinar recording is now available on Knowledge Finder.
For the panellists, all of whom are working in separate countries, the change has been markedly different.
Paris-based Erik Sondén, Senior Advisor at DTZ Investors, says that despite 100% of their staff being back in the office for the last four weeks, business is still quite chaotic in France. Activity is low and discussions over new markets and new capital have remained difficult.
For Roger Orf, Partner and Vice-Chairman at Apollo Global Management, things in London are equally difficult although offices have remained closed. Activity looks unlikely to pick up until the autumn but Orf also believes there have been quick reactions in the market to the changing circumstances and they have been seeing some new business as a result.
In Zurich, the base for Richard Anthony Johnson, Managing Director Head of International Capital Markets at SIGNA Financial Services AG, there has been something approaching a return to normality, with the office back up and running and face-to-face meetings taking place.
But Johnson’s experience is an unusual one, and one of the biggest differences between the three panellists has been in their approach to maintaining and developing client relationships.
While all panellists say that prior to the crisis they were focused predominantly on existing relationships and business, the majority of those clients have been reluctant to embark upon new projects due the uncertainty caused by coronavirus.
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According to Johnson, while existing relationships have been well maintained by established trust and online communication, the real challenge has been with the development of new relationships and acquisitions, which currently form the bulk of the panellists’ business.
Especially in the short term, Sondén expects established brands to be favoured due to their proven track record and notoriety, while investors bring concerns about a distressed market. Start-ups and boutiques, in particular, might face a tough time.
But this does not mean start-ups should be discouraged, with Orf suggesting that this period is almost a perfect time for new businesses, as there is so much opportunity for new ideas.
One example cited by Orf was the retail industry, which has seen so many problems over the last few years that it almost needed a recession to trim some of the fat. Now, small businesses that have a niche or innovative concept will be able to seize the day.
On the whole, however, the panellists shared little optimism for the rest of the year. Sondén believes banks are likely to reintroduce cash deposits for debt financing to enhance their security, and Johnson described this crisis as a “particularly severe downturn” with the synchronised collapse of all major global markets.
Nevertheless, all agreed that there is an opportunity for investment in alternative residential assets such as build-to-rent, purpose-built student accommodation and later living, as the resilient nature of cash flows and tenancies in those sectors continue to draw huge appetite and competition.
There was little agreement on what the economic recovery might look like, but what is clear is that there will be opportunity for new markets and innovation – but perhaps not until 2021.
Richard Anthony Johnson
Managing Director, Head of International Capital Markets
SIGNA Financial Services AG
Roger Orf
Partner and Vice-Chairman
Apollo Global Management
Erik Sondén
Senior Advisor
DTZ Investors
John Barakat
Head of Real Estate Finance
M&G Investments
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